Original: Afghanistan: Central Asia Takes Center Stage Again
With the Taliban having made Pakistan an insecure supply route for war materiel headed into Afghanistan, NATO and the U.S. are looking again to Central Asia for help.
Thom Shanker of The New York Times has filed a piece this morning detailing talks with Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Azerbaijan about serving as alternate supply routes. The talks also include Russia, which exerts considerable influence in the former Soviet region.
Uzbekistan, carried out a new offensive against militants based in the border area.
среда, 31 декабря 2008 г.
среда, 24 декабря 2008 г.
Blunder: A New Age for Russia
Original: Blunder: A New Age for Russia
My friend Zach Shore, who teaches at the Naval Post-Graduate School in Monterey, usually writes about foreign affairs with a historical bent -- on militant Islam in Europe, and on we have covered the Gazprom-led rivalry with the West to build new natural gas pipelines into Europe. Russia's Nord Stream and South Stream pipelines appeared to beat out the West's proposed Nabucco pipeline without breaking a sweat.
Not any longer. Simply put, Russia is in trouble. Its much-ballyhooed $600 billion cash reserve base dropped by a out in his conversation with The
My friend Zach Shore, who teaches at the Naval Post-Graduate School in Monterey, usually writes about foreign affairs with a historical bent -- on militant Islam in Europe, and on we have covered the Gazprom-led rivalry with the West to build new natural gas pipelines into Europe. Russia's Nord Stream and South Stream pipelines appeared to beat out the West's proposed Nabucco pipeline without breaking a sweat.Not any longer. Simply put, Russia is in trouble. Its much-ballyhooed $600 billion cash reserve base dropped by a out in his conversation with The
вторник, 16 декабря 2008 г.
Obama Energy Team Stresses Break with Bush
Original: Obama Energy Team Stresses Break with Bush
In announcing his energy team, President-elect Barack Obama seemed to take a not-very-subtle swipe at the Bush administration. Obama did so in introducing Steven Chu, his designate for energy secretary, invoking a frequent complaint of critics -- that Bush and his team have neglected science in favor of politics and ideology, and been slow to act on global warming.
Obama said this evening in Chicago that Chu's appointment would "send a signal to all that my administration will value science, make decisio president/new_team/show/49">Carol Browner, named to hold the new White House post of energy and climate czar. Browner was EPA administrator under former President Bill Clinton. Still, questions have been raised as to how much true influence Browner will enjoy in a White House filled with heavyweights with perhaps competing agendas.
On the light side, Lynn Yarris, the bundle of enthusiasm and science know-how who serves as Chu's spokesman at Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, says no one at Berkeley -- with the possible exception of Chu's wife -- even knew that he was interviewing for the energy post.
Chu was in London at the time
In announcing his energy team, President-elect Barack Obama seemed to take a not-very-subtle swipe at the Bush administration. Obama did so in introducing Steven Chu, his designate for energy secretary, invoking a frequent complaint of critics -- that Bush and his team have neglected science in favor of politics and ideology, and been slow to act on global warming.
Obama said this evening in Chicago that Chu's appointment would "send a signal to all that my administration will value science, make decisio president/new_team/show/49">Carol Browner, named to hold the new White House post of energy and climate czar. Browner was EPA administrator under former President Bill Clinton. Still, questions have been raised as to how much true influence Browner will enjoy in a White House filled with heavyweights with perhaps competing agendas.
On the light side, Lynn Yarris, the bundle of enthusiasm and science know-how who serves as Chu's spokesman at Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, says no one at Berkeley -- with the possible exception of Chu's wife -- even knew that he was interviewing for the energy post.
Chu was in London at the time
четверг, 11 декабря 2008 г.
What Chu Means as Energy Secretary
Original: What Chu Means as Energy Secretary
By appointing Steven Chu as energy secretary, President-elect Barack Obama appears to be making concrete his campaign pledge to focus on alternative energy. Obama also is continuing his streak of favoring serious personalities with star power in the cabinet.
Chu is the first Nobel laureate to serve on a presidential cabinet. (He won the prize for physics in 1997.) As the current director of the Lawren years down the road. But given the magnitude of the problem, it's okay to have some of our best and brightest working on it. In the end, the quality of the solution will depend on the quality of the people working on it.
By appointing Steven Chu as energy secretary, President-elect Barack Obama appears to be making concrete his campaign pledge to focus on alternative energy. Obama also is continuing his streak of favoring serious personalities with star power in the cabinet.
Chu is the first Nobel laureate to serve on a presidential cabinet. (He won the prize for physics in 1997.) As the current director of the Lawren years down the road. But given the magnitude of the problem, it's okay to have some of our best and brightest working on it. In the end, the quality of the solution will depend on the quality of the people working on it.
вторник, 9 декабря 2008 г.
Iceland From the World's Grumpiest Man
Original: Iceland From the World's Grumpiest Man
We're reading a lot about miserable people. There in fact seems to be no end to miserableness. To make one's mood worse, just yesterday President-elect Barack Obama said things will only get worse.
So I decided to consult an expert on unhappiness. Not just unhappiness -- Eric Weiner says he's a grumpy man (even though I can tell you personally that he isn't really) -- but also happiness. In The Geography of Bliss, published a few mon s, too. And, from what I can tell, those relationships remain intact, despite the financial hardship and, in a way, because of it. Here's what Karl Blondal, deputy editor of the main newspaper in Iceland, said to me in an e-mail.
So I decided to consult an expert on unhappiness. Not just unhappiness -- Eric Weiner says he's a grumpy man (even though I can tell you personally that he isn't really) -- but also happiness. In The Geography of Bliss, published a few mon s, too. And, from what I can tell, those relationships remain intact, despite the financial hardship and, in a way, because of it. Here's what Karl Blondal, deputy editor of the main newspaper in Iceland, said to me in an e-mail.
Right now Icelanders are in a state of shock, and not sure how this will turn out - has Iceland been catapulted back into the stoneage - and where things will stand once the dust has settled. A lot of individuals have been hit really hard, pensioners have lost their lives' savings, etc. But there is also a lot of communal feeling, people address each other in a more caring way in the morning, neighbours inquire how each other is doing. One thing about living in a small community is that everyone you know, family and friends, is within reach - those who lose their jobs are not isolated, the risk of estrangement is not the same as it would be in bigger societies. But there will be a lot of anger, living standards will not
среда, 3 декабря 2008 г.
Pre-empting Peace Between India and Pakistan
Original: Pre-empting Peace Between India and Pakistan
The weekend before last, Pakistan President Asif Zardari made a momentous offer to the country's blood enemy, India: a withdrawal of Pakistan's pre-emptive, first-strike nuclear policy. He also suggested that the two countries, which have gone to war three times, form an economic union. In other words, Zardari made a show of friendship unprecedented in Pakistan's 61-year history.
Three days later , a group of terrorists , possibly members of a Pakistan-nurtured Islamic army , created mayhem in Indian's largest city , Mumbai it's become clear that the ISI has lost control of these groups.
The ISI , for instance , had no role as far as I could tell in conceiving , controlling or influencing the 2002 kidnapping and murder of Daniel Pearl , my Wall Street Journal colleague , by members of Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Jhangvi. Nor , certainly , was the ISI responsible for last year's murder of Zardari's wife , Benazir Bhutto , by a suicide bomber.
суббота, 29 ноября 2008 г.
Lawlessness: Dealing With the Past -- and Present
Original: Lawlessness: Dealing With the Past -- and Present
Cliff Levy at The New York Times has a long, well-written account of a local historican in the Siberian city of Tomsk. The historian -- Boris Trenin -- was rooting around in the earth in an area called Kashtak, and found two skulls with bullet holes. Others found human bones there. Trenin sought to investigate whether this meant that Kashtak was a site for a Stalin-era mass grave, but he cannot get access to state archives.
Trenin has encountered the tension between Russians who seek to air the past in order to make clear the values of the present, and those, such as Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who think that such efforts can be abused by those wishing to beat up on the country. Levy quotes Putin at a meeting last s/ScottHorton">Scott Horton continues his long, penetrating examination of America's own hestitation at self-examination (subscription required as of now. If anyone has seen the entire text on line, please let me know).
Horton, whom I met when I lived in Tashkent and have known for some 13 years, is no zealot. He is wholly fact-driven, with a penetrating intelligence and an impatience with those who use ideology to explain away abuse of power. In Horton's view, while prior periods of U.S. history have seen official criminality such as Richard Nixon's, "no prior administration has been so systematically or so brazenly lawless."
He argues that the Bush years must undergo legal examination. I asked him why. In an email exchange, he replied:
Americans have something of an aversion to the past. "Get over it" is the refrain. But as Orwell says, we are the prisoners of our past--both as individuals and collectively as a society. And Chekhov had the sam
Cliff Levy at The New York Times has a long, well-written account of a local historican in the Siberian city of Tomsk. The historian -- Boris Trenin -- was rooting around in the earth in an area called Kashtak, and found two skulls with bullet holes. Others found human bones there. Trenin sought to investigate whether this meant that Kashtak was a site for a Stalin-era mass grave, but he cannot get access to state archives.
Trenin has encountered the tension between Russians who seek to air the past in order to make clear the values of the present, and those, such as Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who think that such efforts can be abused by those wishing to beat up on the country. Levy quotes Putin at a meeting last s/ScottHorton">Scott Horton continues his long, penetrating examination of America's own hestitation at self-examination (subscription required as of now. If anyone has seen the entire text on line, please let me know).
Horton, whom I met when I lived in Tashkent and have known for some 13 years, is no zealot. He is wholly fact-driven, with a penetrating intelligence and an impatience with those who use ideology to explain away abuse of power. In Horton's view, while prior periods of U.S. history have seen official criminality such as Richard Nixon's, "no prior administration has been so systematically or so brazenly lawless."
He argues that the Bush years must undergo legal examination. I asked him why. In an email exchange, he replied:
Americans have something of an aversion to the past. "Get over it" is the refrain. But as Orwell says, we are the prisoners of our past--both as individuals and collectively as a society. And Chekhov had the sam
четверг, 27 ноября 2008 г.
The Return of High Oil
Original: The Return of High Oil
In June, a couple of Dutch energy researchers released a fascinating, long-gestating report on high oil prices. At the time, oil was selling for about $130 a barrel, and the authors, neatly dissecting the market, argued that prices were only going to get worse. Just the next month, they did rise -- to $147 a barrel.
But, as O and G readers know, there was good reason to argue the other way at least in the short term –
But if in the next two or three years we come out of recession in fair economic shape , look for another steep rise in oil and gasoline prices.
Fatih Birol , chief economist at the International Energy Agency , has been arguing the same point while making the rounds last week and this week in Washington and elsewhere. He's been explaining the IEA's latest World Energy Outlook , which is just as bleak as Jesse's paper. Jesse wrote the paper with Coby van der Lind y motivate oil producers to floo
среда, 26 ноября 2008 г.
The Blithe Pirates
Original: The Blithe Pirates
The unflappable pirates of Somalia are daunted neither by Western warships, nor the threats of the otherwise influential Islamic militants in their midst. And, according to the Central Intelligence Agency's former supervisor for the region, there really isn't much anyone can do to stop them.
The AP's Mohamed Olad Hassan has a piece today describing how, when the fiercest Islamic group in Somalia threatened local pirates who are holding a gigantic oil tanker, the men simply moved the ship from the Somali port of Harard onference call with institutional investors organized by a New York brokerage called Wall Street Access. Since retiring from the CIA earlier this year, Gamble has become an adviser to a New York business intelligence firm called Veracity.
The pirates only began venturing out so far into the sea, Gamble said, because Somali warlords crowded them out of the criminal action within the ports themselves. The size of the sea at their feet is enormous, and specifically how the pirates find their targets isn't certain. However, Gamble said he wouldn't be surprised if they get tip-offs from acquaintances at ports-of-call where the ships or tankers stop along the way.
Can the area be effectively patrolled by the U.S., European and other navies now present in the area? "No," Gamble said. "But the military can conduct deterr l tanker and have seven or eight
The unflappable pirates of Somalia are daunted neither by Western warships, nor the threats of the otherwise influential Islamic militants in their midst. And, according to the Central Intelligence Agency's former supervisor for the region, there really isn't much anyone can do to stop them.
The AP's Mohamed Olad Hassan has a piece today describing how, when the fiercest Islamic group in Somalia threatened local pirates who are holding a gigantic oil tanker, the men simply moved the ship from the Somali port of Harard onference call with institutional investors organized by a New York brokerage called Wall Street Access. Since retiring from the CIA earlier this year, Gamble has become an adviser to a New York business intelligence firm called Veracity.
The pirates only began venturing out so far into the sea, Gamble said, because Somali warlords crowded them out of the criminal action within the ports themselves. The size of the sea at their feet is enormous, and specifically how the pirates find their targets isn't certain. However, Gamble said he wouldn't be surprised if they get tip-offs from acquaintances at ports-of-call where the ships or tankers stop along the way.
Can the area be effectively patrolled by the U.S., European and other navies now present in the area? "No," Gamble said. "But the military can conduct deterr l tanker and have seven or eight
вторник, 18 ноября 2008 г.
Pirates and Oil
Original: Pirates and Oil
The news just became worse for oil companies and petrostates alike: Somali pirates -- the scourge of cargo handlers on Africa's east coast -- have seized an aircraft-carrier size oil tanker steaming 500 miles out to sea.
It's not known publicly how much oil was aboard, but the Saudi-owned carrier has a capacity of 2 million barrels.
The Somalis have menaced shipping along the coast for some time, forcing pilots to go all the way around the Horn of Africa instead of the Suez Canal. But bringing down an oil tanker 500 miles out to sea is a wholly different affair.
Is it possible simply to seize such a large ship unaided by the crew? (
The news just became worse for oil companies and petrostates alike: Somali pirates -- the scourge of cargo handlers on Africa's east coast -- have seized an aircraft-carrier size oil tanker steaming 500 miles out to sea.
It's not known publicly how much oil was aboard, but the Saudi-owned carrier has a capacity of 2 million barrels.
The Somalis have menaced shipping along the coast for some time, forcing pilots to go all the way around the Horn of Africa instead of the Suez Canal. But bringing down an oil tanker 500 miles out to sea is a wholly different affair.
Is it possible simply to seize such a large ship unaided by the crew? (
суббота, 15 ноября 2008 г.
Georgia: (Not Yet) All the Facts
Original: Georgia: (Not Yet) All the Facts
Last week, Russia got a big p.r. boost when Chris Chivers and Ellen Barry wrote a detailed page-one piece in The New York Times backing up its version of how the five-day August war in Georgia began. In a nutshell, the piece concluded that the Georgians started it.
The war was momentous in a number of ways -- it all-but shut off the possibility that Georgia will get into NATO; it put a cloud of doubt over U.S. influence in the Caucasus and Central Asia; it may have accelerated the flight of western capital from Russia; and it turned the heaviest dose of western invective on Russia since the 2006 polonium murder of
Last week, Russia got a big p.r. boost when Chris Chivers and Ellen Barry wrote a detailed page-one piece in The New York Times backing up its version of how the five-day August war in Georgia began. In a nutshell, the piece concluded that the Georgians started it.
The war was momentous in a number of ways -- it all-but shut off the possibility that Georgia will get into NATO; it put a cloud of doubt over U.S. influence in the Caucasus and Central Asia; it may have accelerated the flight of western capital from Russia; and it turned the heaviest dose of western invective on Russia since the 2006 polonium murder of
четверг, 13 ноября 2008 г.
Summit, What Summit?
Original: Summit, What Summit?
Russia is devaluing the ruble. The Nasdaq has fallen to its lowest level in more than five years. And Brazil's shares and currency plunged after Hank Paulson officially announced that the U.S. actually won't be buying up what are popularly called "toxic assets," the exotic bonds that have triggered the global economic turmoil.
Which, if you listen to the largely skeptical analysts in him." Freeman said.
"Obama is voting 'present,'" quipped Grant Aldonas, a international trade specialist at the center.
Other takeaways: Though Brazil, the U.S. and perhaps others would like to resurrect the Doha global trade accord, it's still too disputatious to go nowhere. ("We'll be selling 'Doha is Dead' t-shirts in the lobby," said Andrew Schwartz, the center's spokesman, summarizing the group's conclusion.). And stimulus money being distributed around the world should be precisely targeted for productivity growth, and not simply given out. "You don't want to just poor water in the sand," said Steven Schrage, who formerly advised Mitt Romney on trade and economics, and now coordinates the study of international commerce at CSIS.
Lastly: Any fundamental reforming of the international financial system is going to be years, not days or months, away.
Russia is devaluing the ruble. The Nasdaq has fallen to its lowest level in more than five years. And Brazil's shares and currency plunged after Hank Paulson officially announced that the U.S. actually won't be buying up what are popularly called "toxic assets," the exotic bonds that have triggered the global economic turmoil.
Which, if you listen to the largely skeptical analysts in him." Freeman said.
"Obama is voting 'present,'" quipped Grant Aldonas, a international trade specialist at the center.
Other takeaways: Though Brazil, the U.S. and perhaps others would like to resurrect the Doha global trade accord, it's still too disputatious to go nowhere. ("We'll be selling 'Doha is Dead' t-shirts in the lobby," said Andrew Schwartz, the center's spokesman, summarizing the group's conclusion.). And stimulus money being distributed around the world should be precisely targeted for productivity growth, and not simply given out. "You don't want to just poor water in the sand," said Steven Schrage, who formerly advised Mitt Romney on trade and economics, and now coordinates the study of international commerce at CSIS.
Lastly: Any fundamental reforming of the international financial system is going to be years, not days or months, away.
вторник, 4 ноября 2008 г.
wow, this really got away from me
Original: wow, this really got away from me
Basically, the important thing here is to vote. I encourage you to vote for Obama. Take care.
Basically, the important thing here is to vote. I encourage you to vote for Obama. Take care.
воскресенье, 19 октября 2008 г.
George Keller 1923-2008
Original: George Keller 1923-2008
George Keller, the former Chevron chairman, who died yesterday in Palo Alto, was an archetype of the intuitive, gambling, technologically driven men who formerly made up the spine of the oil industry. It's not sentimentality to say that one of Big Oil's biggest problems is that today there are none like him at the helm of the five or six top companies.
Keller is famous for the nervy play that created Chevron -- the 1984 purchase of legendary Gulf Oil, described vividly in Daniel Yergin's The Prize. But Keller's vision didn't et="_blank" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aramco">pioneering of Saudi Arabian oil. And he told me about the day in 1987 when he got a call from his much-trusted investment banker, Nicholas Brady, about a fellow named Jim Giffen who had an interesting concept. Keller should give Giffen a hearing, Brady said.
A few days later, Giffen -- a little-known New York promoter of business in the Soviet Union -- arrived in Keller's office. He proceeded to describe to the Chevron boss and his lieutenants how they might acquire an oilfieild in the off-limits Soviet Union -- what Ronald Reagan at the time called the Evil Empire.
Few oilmen would have trusted a fellow like Giffen, who belonged to a class of businessmen -- middlemen -- who usually earned their money by getting between oilmen and the oilfield. But Keller did. He ordered his men to go with Giffen to Moscow. And so b
George Keller, the former Chevron chairman, who died yesterday in Palo Alto, was an archetype of the intuitive, gambling, technologically driven men who formerly made up the spine of the oil industry. It's not sentimentality to say that one of Big Oil's biggest problems is that today there are none like him at the helm of the five or six top companies.
Keller is famous for the nervy play that created Chevron -- the 1984 purchase of legendary Gulf Oil, described vividly in Daniel Yergin's The Prize. But Keller's vision didn't et="_blank" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aramco">pioneering of Saudi Arabian oil. And he told me about the day in 1987 when he got a call from his much-trusted investment banker, Nicholas Brady, about a fellow named Jim Giffen who had an interesting concept. Keller should give Giffen a hearing, Brady said.
A few days later, Giffen -- a little-known New York promoter of business in the Soviet Union -- arrived in Keller's office. He proceeded to describe to the Chevron boss and his lieutenants how they might acquire an oilfieild in the off-limits Soviet Union -- what Ronald Reagan at the time called the Evil Empire.
Few oilmen would have trusted a fellow like Giffen, who belonged to a class of businessmen -- middlemen -- who usually earned their money by getting between oilmen and the oilfield. But Keller did. He ordered his men to go with Giffen to Moscow. And so b
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