Original: Lawlessness: Dealing With the Past -- and Present
Cliff Levy at The New York Times has a long, well-written account of a local historican in the Siberian city of Tomsk. The historian -- Boris Trenin -- was rooting around in the earth in an area called Kashtak, and found two skulls with bullet holes. Others found human bones there. Trenin sought to investigate whether this meant that Kashtak was a site for a Stalin-era mass grave, but he cannot get access to state archives.
Trenin has encountered the tension between Russians who seek to air the past in order to make clear the values of the present, and those, such as Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who think that such efforts can be abused by those wishing to beat up on the country. Levy quotes Putin at a meeting last s/ScottHorton">Scott Horton continues his long, penetrating examination of America's own hestitation at self-examination (subscription required as of now. If anyone has seen the entire text on line, please let me know).
Horton, whom I met when I lived in Tashkent and have known for some 13 years, is no zealot. He is wholly fact-driven, with a penetrating intelligence and an impatience with those who use ideology to explain away abuse of power. In Horton's view, while prior periods of U.S. history have seen official criminality such as Richard Nixon's, "no prior administration has been so systematically or so brazenly lawless."
He argues that the Bush years must undergo legal examination. I asked him why. In an email exchange, he replied:
Americans have something of an aversion to the past. "Get over it" is the refrain. But as Orwell says, we are the prisoners of our past--both as individuals and collectively as a society. And Chekhov had the sam
суббота, 29 ноября 2008 г.
четверг, 27 ноября 2008 г.
The Return of High Oil
Original: The Return of High Oil
In June, a couple of Dutch energy researchers released a fascinating, long-gestating report on high oil prices. At the time, oil was selling for about $130 a barrel, and the authors, neatly dissecting the market, argued that prices were only going to get worse. Just the next month, they did rise -- to $147 a barrel.
But, as O and G readers know, there was good reason to argue the other way at least in the short term –
But if in the next two or three years we come out of recession in fair economic shape , look for another steep rise in oil and gasoline prices.
Fatih Birol , chief economist at the International Energy Agency , has been arguing the same point while making the rounds last week and this week in Washington and elsewhere. He's been explaining the IEA's latest World Energy Outlook , which is just as bleak as Jesse's paper. Jesse wrote the paper with Coby van der Lind y motivate oil producers to floo
среда, 26 ноября 2008 г.
The Blithe Pirates
Original: The Blithe Pirates
The unflappable pirates of Somalia are daunted neither by Western warships, nor the threats of the otherwise influential Islamic militants in their midst. And, according to the Central Intelligence Agency's former supervisor for the region, there really isn't much anyone can do to stop them.
The AP's Mohamed Olad Hassan has a piece today describing how, when the fiercest Islamic group in Somalia threatened local pirates who are holding a gigantic oil tanker, the men simply moved the ship from the Somali port of Harard onference call with institutional investors organized by a New York brokerage called Wall Street Access. Since retiring from the CIA earlier this year, Gamble has become an adviser to a New York business intelligence firm called Veracity.
The pirates only began venturing out so far into the sea, Gamble said, because Somali warlords crowded them out of the criminal action within the ports themselves. The size of the sea at their feet is enormous, and specifically how the pirates find their targets isn't certain. However, Gamble said he wouldn't be surprised if they get tip-offs from acquaintances at ports-of-call where the ships or tankers stop along the way.
Can the area be effectively patrolled by the U.S., European and other navies now present in the area? "No," Gamble said. "But the military can conduct deterr l tanker and have seven or eight
The unflappable pirates of Somalia are daunted neither by Western warships, nor the threats of the otherwise influential Islamic militants in their midst. And, according to the Central Intelligence Agency's former supervisor for the region, there really isn't much anyone can do to stop them.
The AP's Mohamed Olad Hassan has a piece today describing how, when the fiercest Islamic group in Somalia threatened local pirates who are holding a gigantic oil tanker, the men simply moved the ship from the Somali port of Harard onference call with institutional investors organized by a New York brokerage called Wall Street Access. Since retiring from the CIA earlier this year, Gamble has become an adviser to a New York business intelligence firm called Veracity.
The pirates only began venturing out so far into the sea, Gamble said, because Somali warlords crowded them out of the criminal action within the ports themselves. The size of the sea at their feet is enormous, and specifically how the pirates find their targets isn't certain. However, Gamble said he wouldn't be surprised if they get tip-offs from acquaintances at ports-of-call where the ships or tankers stop along the way.
Can the area be effectively patrolled by the U.S., European and other navies now present in the area? "No," Gamble said. "But the military can conduct deterr l tanker and have seven or eight
вторник, 18 ноября 2008 г.
Pirates and Oil
Original: Pirates and Oil
The news just became worse for oil companies and petrostates alike: Somali pirates -- the scourge of cargo handlers on Africa's east coast -- have seized an aircraft-carrier size oil tanker steaming 500 miles out to sea.
It's not known publicly how much oil was aboard, but the Saudi-owned carrier has a capacity of 2 million barrels.
The Somalis have menaced shipping along the coast for some time, forcing pilots to go all the way around the Horn of Africa instead of the Suez Canal. But bringing down an oil tanker 500 miles out to sea is a wholly different affair.
Is it possible simply to seize such a large ship unaided by the crew? (
The news just became worse for oil companies and petrostates alike: Somali pirates -- the scourge of cargo handlers on Africa's east coast -- have seized an aircraft-carrier size oil tanker steaming 500 miles out to sea.
It's not known publicly how much oil was aboard, but the Saudi-owned carrier has a capacity of 2 million barrels.
The Somalis have menaced shipping along the coast for some time, forcing pilots to go all the way around the Horn of Africa instead of the Suez Canal. But bringing down an oil tanker 500 miles out to sea is a wholly different affair.
Is it possible simply to seize such a large ship unaided by the crew? (
суббота, 15 ноября 2008 г.
Georgia: (Not Yet) All the Facts
Original: Georgia: (Not Yet) All the Facts
Last week, Russia got a big p.r. boost when Chris Chivers and Ellen Barry wrote a detailed page-one piece in The New York Times backing up its version of how the five-day August war in Georgia began. In a nutshell, the piece concluded that the Georgians started it.
The war was momentous in a number of ways -- it all-but shut off the possibility that Georgia will get into NATO; it put a cloud of doubt over U.S. influence in the Caucasus and Central Asia; it may have accelerated the flight of western capital from Russia; and it turned the heaviest dose of western invective on Russia since the 2006 polonium murder of
Last week, Russia got a big p.r. boost when Chris Chivers and Ellen Barry wrote a detailed page-one piece in The New York Times backing up its version of how the five-day August war in Georgia began. In a nutshell, the piece concluded that the Georgians started it.
The war was momentous in a number of ways -- it all-but shut off the possibility that Georgia will get into NATO; it put a cloud of doubt over U.S. influence in the Caucasus and Central Asia; it may have accelerated the flight of western capital from Russia; and it turned the heaviest dose of western invective on Russia since the 2006 polonium murder of
четверг, 13 ноября 2008 г.
Summit, What Summit?
Original: Summit, What Summit?
Russia is devaluing the ruble. The Nasdaq has fallen to its lowest level in more than five years. And Brazil's shares and currency plunged after Hank Paulson officially announced that the U.S. actually won't be buying up what are popularly called "toxic assets," the exotic bonds that have triggered the global economic turmoil.
Which, if you listen to the largely skeptical analysts in him." Freeman said.
"Obama is voting 'present,'" quipped Grant Aldonas, a international trade specialist at the center.
Other takeaways: Though Brazil, the U.S. and perhaps others would like to resurrect the Doha global trade accord, it's still too disputatious to go nowhere. ("We'll be selling 'Doha is Dead' t-shirts in the lobby," said Andrew Schwartz, the center's spokesman, summarizing the group's conclusion.). And stimulus money being distributed around the world should be precisely targeted for productivity growth, and not simply given out. "You don't want to just poor water in the sand," said Steven Schrage, who formerly advised Mitt Romney on trade and economics, and now coordinates the study of international commerce at CSIS.
Lastly: Any fundamental reforming of the international financial system is going to be years, not days or months, away.
Russia is devaluing the ruble. The Nasdaq has fallen to its lowest level in more than five years. And Brazil's shares and currency plunged after Hank Paulson officially announced that the U.S. actually won't be buying up what are popularly called "toxic assets," the exotic bonds that have triggered the global economic turmoil.
Which, if you listen to the largely skeptical analysts in him." Freeman said.
"Obama is voting 'present,'" quipped Grant Aldonas, a international trade specialist at the center.
Other takeaways: Though Brazil, the U.S. and perhaps others would like to resurrect the Doha global trade accord, it's still too disputatious to go nowhere. ("We'll be selling 'Doha is Dead' t-shirts in the lobby," said Andrew Schwartz, the center's spokesman, summarizing the group's conclusion.). And stimulus money being distributed around the world should be precisely targeted for productivity growth, and not simply given out. "You don't want to just poor water in the sand," said Steven Schrage, who formerly advised Mitt Romney on trade and economics, and now coordinates the study of international commerce at CSIS.
Lastly: Any fundamental reforming of the international financial system is going to be years, not days or months, away.
вторник, 4 ноября 2008 г.
wow, this really got away from me
Original: wow, this really got away from me
Basically, the important thing here is to vote. I encourage you to vote for Obama. Take care.
Basically, the important thing here is to vote. I encourage you to vote for Obama. Take care.
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