Reset: Russia, yes; Iran, Kinda

Original: Reset: Russia, yes; Iran, Kinda

Rose Gottemoeller, assistant secretary of state for verification, compliance and implementation, will be the chief U.S. negotiator for nuclear arms reductions with Russia. The goal is to sign a completed deal by Dec. 15, when Start I expires.

That's not a surprise -- Gottemoeller negotiated one of Washington's single most-important successes in the post-Soviet era, which was the removal during the Clinton administration of 4,000 nuclear warheads from Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Belarus.

It's also not a su er agreement on how to deal with Iran's nuclear program.

All of this has an economic component -- energy. Geopolitics in the region are highly inter-connected: Better relations with Russia can help fertilize the ground toward a thaw of U.S. relations with Iran, which could then significantly improve global natural gas supplies, particularly to Europe, which is highly dependent on -- who else? -- Russia. It's all fairly circular. Iran has the world's second-largest natural gas reserves, and whenever the financial crisis tamps down, Europe's energy thirst is going to resume its rise.

What Obama officials said on the four-page Obama-Medvedev statement itself: "I'll tell you honestly, I was not optimistic when we started this process of negotiating this that we would get it done for this meeting. ... It started very differently several weeks ago, and that he got his government to engage in it in a very serious way and get it done br />
On Iran, progress isn

The Oil and Glory Interview: Paul Kennedy

Original: The Oil and Glory Interview: Paul Kennedy

Economic historian Paul Kennedy is arguably the West's most influential scholar on the decline of great powers. When you hear or read someone talking about whether or how America is being eclipsed as the world's pre-eminent power, you are almost always getting a derivation of Kennedy's seminal 1987 work, The Rise and Fall of Great Powers.

Two narratives are currently going on. One is the global financial turmoil. The second is America 's place in the world now and going forw A – You know how Truman said he'd give anything for a one-handed economist? You are going to want a one-handed economic historian. Since you already have some historians telling you about the analogies, let me just go through what is different.

This time we are talking of most of the world coming together – North-South, and East-West. Then, there was still a western-oriented discussion. The Soviet Union was in its own, closed environment. Most of the world was in its own tariff regime.

The biggest difference is the absence of anyone seeking to alter the territorial status quo. The Depression allowed extremist countries to exploit a resen lank" href="http://en.wikipedia.

Original: Simon Johnson's Revolt

Simon Johnson, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund who teaches at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, for months has been a frequently quoted voice on the recession. But now, he is verging on the type of celebrity status that, short of a Nobel or a Clark medal, is the best an economist can hope to attain.

That is, an appearance on Comedy Central.

In his March 12 appearance on Stephen Colbert, Johnson repeats a refrain that he trotted out in an The Colbert ReportMon - Thurs 11:30pm / 10:30cIt Could Be Worse - Simon Johnson

четверг, 26 марта 2009 г.

The Oil and Glory interview: Joseph Stiglitz

Original: The Oil and Glory interview: Joseph Stiglitz

Joseph Stiglitz stepped down as chief economist of the World Bank a decade ago after his outspoken criticism of Washington and International Monetary Fund economic policies left him afoul of powerful foes including then-Treasury Secretary Larry Summers.

Today, however, the Nobel laureate in economics is attracting attention as much of his economic doomsaying has proven correct. Here is the story in Business Week.

And the edited interview:

Q – You are calling for a new global currency to replace the dollar. What is the crux of the idea?

A – The central idea is that the current system of depending on a single currency and the political and economic management of that currency is volatile. It's inequitable because poor people are lending to the U.S. at low interest rates. In a global economy, you need a global o say anything else, it would su

The Other Khodorkovsky Case

Original: The Other Khodorkovsky Case

Much attention is focused on the latest news of dethroned Russian oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the imprisoned former CEO of Yukos Oil who is undergoing a new trial in Moscow at the moment. But a second drama is also going on in the six-year-long Khodorkovsky saga -- a $33.4 billion legal battle against Russia being staged by Yukos' divested owners.

In 2003, Russian commandos stormed Khodorkovsky's private je ase in the U.S. and Europe. Osborne visits the State and Energy departments, with congressmen, and has testified before Congress.

Despite Khodorkovsky's imprisonment, his public relations effort remains formidable.

In London, Canadian lawyer Robert Amsterdam is Khodorkovsky's main legal spokesman, writing a much-read blog, delivering speeches and generally talking up his client's cause. Khodorkovsky and Lebedev have another, official web site, too.

In Washington, Osborne is represented by the influent harter.org/">Energy Charter Trea

New Washington Team and a Fresh Game in Russia, Iran and the Caspian

Original: New Washington Team and a Fresh Game in Russia, Iran and the Caspian

After much gnawing over the notion, the Bush administration decided last year to issue a White House invitation to Turkmenistan President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov. That was wise -- this trained dentist is one of a handful of indispensable players in Eurasian energy.

Alas, the invitation was also late -- geopolitical rival Vladimir Putin had marked up a several-year-long head start of mutual state visits between Moscow and Ashgabat. And it was clumsy: the Turkmen leader was asked to come after the November presidential election. In other words, after Bush was officially a lame duck.

Understandably, Berdymukhamedov declined.

Today, the Obama administration is trying to lower the te ps/news?pid=20601085&refer=europe&sid=aPAH1Ick09nM">region of U.S. strategic interest since it backed construction of the Baku-Ceyhan oil pipeline connecting the Caspian and Mediterranean seas in the 1990s. Washington called it the East-West Energy Corridor.

Will the Obama administration get its timing better in terms of inviting Berdymukhamedov to the White House? If so, he might become friendlier toward the parade of U.S. diplomats and oil company executives who call and email me and others regularly with tales of woe regarding their reception in Ashgabat.

Members of the new team include Mike McFaul, the long-time Russia hand who co-wrote a

The Game-Changing Financial Crisis

Original: The Game-Changing Financial Crisis

We already know how the financial crisis has changed the landscape around us. After a drumbeat of reckoning that has brought low the titans of Wall Street and Citibank, today we hear that the venerable American International Group is breaking itself up. The crisis also provided the opening for President Obama to seek all his main campaign pledges at once -- universal health care, education reform, carbon-emissions tra oad. I wrote a piece over the weekend on how development banks are trying to stave off potential dangers of the crisis in Eastern Europe. The New York Times' Steve Erlanger, my former colleague in Moscow, has a good piece explaining the fears of a fresh East-West divide in Europe.